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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-01-24T01:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-24T01:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28767/-1
CME Note: Visible in the SW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source may be an eruption from AR 3561 (approx. S17W45) best seen as brightening and moving field lines in SDO AIA 193. Candidate associated flare is an M2.6 class flare peaking at 2024-01-24T01:40Z as seen in SDO AIA 131. Opening field lines are also visible in SDO AIA 171. It is also observed in STEREO A EUV imagery. A wider shock appears to be visible in the coronagraph imagery ahead of the bulk of the CME. The start of the possible arrival signature for this CME is approximate. The signature is characterized by gradual increase in B total to 12nT, accompanied by rotation of all 3 magnetic field components and a drop in temperature. A drop in density happens closer to 2024-01-24T12Z. Alternatively, this signature could be the late arrival (glancing blow) of 2024-01-23T17:36Z CME and/or a minor coronal hole high speed stream.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-28T03:42Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-28T02:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: 80.98 hour(s)
Difference: 1.70 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-01-24T18:43Z

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